March 9, 2012
Daily commentary, current portfolio structure and history follow.
Please direct questions and comments to:
Drach Market Research
2910 Kerry Forest Parkway D4-210
Tallahassee FL 32309
Tel. (850) 576-2680
E Mail DrachMkt@aol.com
Position Changes: None.
Major movements (+ or – one point or more among holdings): None.
Basic Summary (positions itemized after daily commentary)
Relative performance (market to market) vs. S&P 500 since initiation
This Portfolio Model + 213%
S&P 500 + 163%
Portfolio model initiated 5/5/95, archived and marked to market daily.
Initial S&P 500 level 520.12. Initial portfolio value $520,120.00
Current portfolio value $1,631,747.72, gain 213.73%
These results are reflective as to capital capture and market price of current holdings, itemized below. They do not include cash dividends, interest earned on cash balances, transaction costs, or anything else.
Current Stock vs. Cash Allocation
$1,050,320.56 (64%) stock. $581,427.16 (36%) cash equivalents.
Summary of Closed Positions
Total Positions 459 Average Position Profit 413 (89.97%) Percentage + 7.19% Loss 46 (10.03%) Days Held 220 Even 0 ( 0%) Annualized + 11.93%
The week ended with another positive day and some correlating positive news in February’s jobs report (as well as upward revisions to January and December). Another piece to fit into the narrative of a smoothly ascending market.
Unfortunately the narrative seems unsustainable. We can only note one similar low-volatility rally of this magnitude that did not revert to normal/above normal volatility. Though that streak did occur during the 1990-1998 monetary infusion cycle, volatility is likely to increase this time around, but the timing is difficult to predict.
Though the week posted small net price movements, internal dislocations were somewhat relieved, reducing the probability that this model will make any changes to its allocation.